There are now 27% less nursery pupils in Waltham Forest than there were ten years ago (2015/16), with numbers dropping by 7% between 2023/24 and 2024/25 alone, reports Marco Marcelline

Demand for school places in Waltham Forest and across London is continuing to decline, “raising the risk of school closures and reduced curriculum options”, according to a new report from London Councils. 

School Capacity Survey (SCAP) data from all 32 London boroughs shows a forecast decline of 3.8% in Year 7 places and 2.5% in reception places between 2025/6 and 2029/30. 

As school funding is allocated on a per-pupil basis, London Councils estimates that the forecast decline in demand for school places would lead to around £15million in funding cuts for primary schools and £30m for secondary schools in London. 

Declining numbers can significantly affect school finances, with around 90 school closures or mergers across the capital in the last five years.

Other schools have reduced their Published Admission Numbers (PAN) – the number of children admitted to a school or year group in a given year – to remain viable.  

Since 2021/22, the number of Waltham Forest controlled primary schools with a PAN of 90 or 120 has dropped from twelve to just eight. 

Meanwhile, there were twelve primary schools with a PAN of 30 or 60 in 2021/22 but there will be 16 in 2026/27.

Edinburgh Primary School in Walthamstow is joining four other schools in the 2026/27 academic year who will have a maximum of 30 pupils per year. Despite having a capacity of 630 pupils, just 182 are enrolled at Edinburgh.

There are now 27% less nursery pupils in Waltham Forest than there were ten years ago (2015/16), with numbers dropping by 7% between 2023/24 to 2024/25 alone.

Meanwhile, the number of Year Seven pupils enrolled in the borough’s schools fell 5.38% from 3,085 in 2023/24 to 2,915 in 2024/25.

According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Waltham Forest saw England’s largest percentage-point rise in the proportion of households including a couple but no children (from 11.4% in 2011 to 14.8% in 2021).

The borough’s birth rate dropped 3% from 2014 to 2019, with 4,618 births in 2014 compared to 4,482 newborns in 2019.

London Councils says that without additional support, falling pupil numbers and subsequent reduced funding “risk limiting young people’s education, widening inequalities, restricting opportunities”.

The collective of borough councils is calling on government to ensure that schools receive sustainable and adequate funding, with a spokesperson adding: “The government should work with London Councils and key education partners to support the secondary sector to mitigate the impact of falling rolls, with a particular focus on maintaining a broad and balanced curriculum, sustaining enrichment opportunities, and protecting inclusive special educational needs provision.”

London Councils’ executive member for children and young people, Ian Edwards, said: “Maintaining high education standards is the absolute priority for London’s boroughs, but falling pupil numbers are putting real pressure on school budgets. 

“Boroughs are doing all they can locally to manage this whilst ensuring London’s education estate is protected, so school sites can continue to meet future need – particularly given the capital’s acute housing pressures and ambitious targets for housing growth. 

“Without action to reflect London’s circumstances, schools risk having to narrow the curriculum and reduce vital support for pupils.”

Schools across Waltham Forest will receive slightly more money per pupil under new council plans released last month, with schools being allocated £6,941 per pupil in 2026/27, an increase of £154 on last year’s total.

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